""" Three views of imperial rise and fall, in light and dark themes. empires_cascade[_dark].png - territorial extent ridgeline, 550 BCE -> today, shared scale modern_power[_dark].png - share of world GDP (PPP), 1500 -> 2026 empire_lifecycles[_dark].png - % of peak extent vs years since founding empires_data.js - data export for the interactive HTML version Territorial data: approximations after Rein Taagepera, "Size and Duration of Empires" (1978, 1979, 1997), million km^2. GDP shares: Angus Maddison project estimates + IMF WEO (PPP) for recent years. All values approximate. """ import json import os import numpy as np import matplotlib matplotlib.use("Agg") import matplotlib.pyplot as plt from matplotlib.ticker import FuncFormatter OUT = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)) THEMES = { "light": dict(suffix="", bg="#faf9f5", fg="#33312c", grey="#8a857c", grid="#e7e4dc", baseline="#cfccc4", mix=0.0), "dark": dict(suffix="_dark", bg="#262624", fg="#e8e5de", grey="#a09a8e", grid="#3a3833", baseline="#4d4a44", mix=0.38), } def lighten(hex_color, t): """Blend a hex colour toward white by t (0..1).""" if t <= 0: return hex_color r, g, b = (int(hex_color[i:i + 2], 16) for i in (1, 3, 5)) f = lambda v: int(round(v + (255 - v) * t)) return f"#{f(r):02x}{f(g):02x}{f(b):02x}" # ---------------------------------------------------------------- data # (name, still-extant, family colour, [(year, extent Mkm^2)...]) EMPIRES = [ ("Neo-Assyrian Empire", False, "#7d6e54", [(-911,0.4),(-850,0.8),(-740,1.0), (-700,1.3),(-670,1.4),(-640,1.3),(-620,0.8),(-609,0)]), ("Fatimid Caliphate", False, "#3e7d78", [(909,0.4),(940,1.0),(969,2.5),(1000,4.1), (1050,3.0),(1100,1.5),(1150,0.6),(1171,0)]), ("Seljuk Empire", False, "#7b5e75", [(1037,0.8),(1055,2.0),(1080,3.9),(1100,3.5), (1141,2.0),(1160,1.2),(1194,0)]), ("Delhi Sultanate", False, "#b3873e", [(1206,0.5),(1236,1.0),(1290,1.5),(1312,2.7), (1335,3.2),(1351,2.0),(1398,1.0),(1450,0.8),(1500,0.6),(1526,0)]), ("Timurid Empire", False, "#6e5340", [(1370,0.5),(1385,1.5),(1395,3.5),(1405,4.4), (1420,4.0),(1450,3.0),(1469,1.5),(1500,0.8),(1507,0)]), ("Safavid Persia", False, "#5e7d4f", [(1501,0.8),(1510,2.0),(1550,2.5),(1590,2.0), (1629,2.9),(1660,2.7),(1700,2.5),(1722,1.5),(1736,0)]), ("Empire of Japan", False, "#3f7f96", [(1868,0.38),(1895,0.41),(1905,0.45),(1910,0.67), (1932,1.6),(1938,2.8),(1942,7.4),(1945,0)]), ("Germany (Reich)", False, "#5c5c5c", [(1871,0.54),(1884,1.0),(1900,3.0),(1914,3.5), (1919,0.47),(1939,0.7),(1941,3.3),(1942,3.6),(1944,2.5),(1945,0)]), ("Inca (Tawantinsuyu)", False, "#ab5d3c", [(1438,0.3),(1463,0.8),(1471,1.2), (1493,1.8),(1525,2.0),(1532,1.8),(1533,0)]), ("Achaemenid Persia", False, "#5e7d4f", [(-550,0.5),(-539,2.0),(-525,3.5),(-500,5.5),(-480,5.5), (-450,5.0),(-400,4.6),(-350,4.5),(-334,4.0),(-330,0)]), ("Maurya (India)", False, "#b3873e", [(-322,0.5),(-300,3.5),(-260,5.0),(-230,4.0),(-200,1.5),(-185,0)]), ("Rome", False, "#54678a", [(-326,0.05),(-264,0.15),(-218,0.3),(-200,0.6),(-146,0.8),(-100,1.2), (-60,1.95),(-30,2.75),(14,3.5),(50,4.2),(117,5.0),(200,4.6),(300,4.4),(390,4.4), (420,3.0),(450,1.7),(476,0)]), ("Han China", False, "#9c453a", [(-206,1.5),(-180,3.0),(-120,4.5),(-100,6.0),(-50,6.0),(1,6.1), (50,5.8),(100,6.5),(150,6.0),(190,3.0),(220,0)]), ("Sasanian Persia", False, "#5e7d4f", [(224,2.8),(260,3.0),(400,3.3),(530,3.5),(580,3.3), (620,3.5),(636,2.5),(651,0)]), ("Byzantium", False, "#54678a", [(395,2.0),(450,1.6),(527,1.7),(555,2.7),(600,2.2),(640,1.5), (700,0.9),(750,0.75),(850,0.8),(950,1.0),(1025,1.35),(1080,0.6),(1143,0.65), (1180,0.7),(1204,0.25),(1261,0.35),(1350,0.1),(1453,0)]), ("Tang China", False, "#9c453a", [(618,3.0),(630,4.0),(660,5.0),(669,5.4),(715,5.4),(755,4.6), (763,3.8),(800,3.6),(860,3.3),(880,1.5),(907,0)]), ("Arab Caliphates", False, "#3e7d78", [(632,0.2),(642,3.0),(661,5.5),(690,7.5),(720,9.8), (750,11.1),(800,10.0),(861,7.5),(900,4.5),(945,1.5),(1000,0.8),(1055,0)]), ("Mongol Empire", False, "#6e5340", [(1206,1.0),(1218,3.5),(1227,13.5),(1241,16.5),(1259,19.0), (1279,23.0),(1294,23.5),(1310,24.0),(1330,21.0),(1350,14.0),(1368,4.0),(1380,0)]), ("Ottoman Empire", False, "#7b5e75", [(1299,0.05),(1360,0.4),(1389,0.7),(1451,0.9),(1453,1.0), (1481,1.2),(1520,2.2),(1566,4.3),(1620,4.8),(1683,5.2),(1739,4.6),(1800,4.0), (1830,3.4),(1878,2.9),(1900,2.6),(1914,1.8),(1918,1.0),(1922,0)]), ("Ming China", False, "#9c453a", [(1368,3.5),(1390,5.0),(1415,6.5),(1450,5.8),(1500,5.2), (1550,4.8),(1600,4.7),(1630,4.0),(1644,0)]), ("Spanish Empire", False, "#8a7d3a", [(1492,0.05),(1520,0.8),(1550,3.0),(1580,6.0),(1600,7.5), (1650,9.0),(1700,10.0),(1750,12.0),(1790,13.7),(1810,13.0),(1821,8.0),(1825,3.0), (1860,1.2),(1898,0.4),(1900,0)]), ("Mughal (India)", False, "#b3873e", [(1526,0.8),(1556,1.2),(1605,3.2),(1658,3.6),(1690,4.0), (1707,4.0),(1739,2.8),(1760,1.6),(1790,0.7),(1803,0.3),(1857,0)]), ("Russia – USSR – Russia", True, "#7d4f63", [(1547,2.8),(1600,5.0),(1650,10.0),(1700,14.5), (1750,15.5),(1800,16.5),(1850,20.0),(1866,22.8),(1895,22.8),(1905,22.4), (1917,20.0),(1922,21.7),(1945,22.4),(1991,22.4),(1992,17.1),(2026,17.1)]), ("British Empire", False, "#2e5e8a", [(1583,0.01),(1650,0.4),(1700,0.9),(1763,3.0),(1783,2.3), (1800,4.5),(1815,6.5),(1837,9.0),(1860,15.0),(1880,25.0),(1900,30.0),(1920,35.5), (1936,34.5),(1945,33.0),(1947,21.0),(1957,15.0),(1960,10.0),(1965,3.0), (1980,0.7),(1997,0.05),(2000,0)]), ("French Empire", False, "#6f8fae", [(1605,0.02),(1663,0.3),(1680,2.0),(1754,3.0),(1763,0.6), (1812,2.1),(1815,0.6),(1830,0.7),(1860,1.2),(1880,3.5),(1900,9.0),(1920,11.5), (1939,11.0),(1945,10.5),(1954,9.5),(1960,8.0),(1962,0.5),(1980,0)]), ("Qing China", False, "#9c453a", [(1644,5.5),(1660,7.0),(1700,9.0),(1720,11.0),(1760,13.1), (1790,14.7),(1820,14.0),(1860,13.0),(1880,11.5),(1900,11.0),(1912,0)]), ("United States", True, "#2e6b4f", [(1776,0.9),(1783,2.3),(1803,4.6),(1845,5.5),(1848,7.7), (1853,7.8),(1867,9.3),(1898,9.7),(1912,9.8),(2026,9.8)]), ("India (Republic)", True, "#b3873e", [(1947,3.2),(1961,3.29),(2026,3.29)]), ("China (PRC)", True, "#9c453a", [(1949,9.3),(1951,9.6),(2026,9.6)]), ] EMPIRES.sort(key=lambda e: e[3][0][0]) def year_fmt(y, _pos=None): if y < 0: return f"{int(-y)} BCE" if y == 1: return "1 CE" return f"{int(y)}" # ---------------------------------------------------------------- fig 1: cascade def fig_cascade(th): spacing = 8.0 # million km^2 between baselines -> shared scale across rows n = len(EMPIRES) fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(13.5, 29)) fig.patch.set_facecolor(th["bg"]) ax.set_facecolor(th["bg"]) for gx in (-500, 1, 500, 1000, 1500, 2000): ax.axvline(gx, color=th["grid"], lw=0.8, zorder=0) for i, (name, extant, col, pts) in enumerate(EMPIRES): col = lighten(col, th["mix"]) base = (n - 1 - i) * spacing xs = np.array([p[0] for p in pts], float) ys = np.array([p[1] for p in pts], float) z = 2 + i # later empires drawn in front (joyplot occlusion) ax.fill_between(xs, base, base + ys, color=col, alpha=0.14, zorder=z, lw=0) ax.plot(xs, ys + base, color=col, lw=1.6 if extant else 1.2, zorder=z + 0.1, solid_capstyle="round") ax.plot([xs[0], xs[-1]], [base, base], color=th["baseline"], lw=0.6, zorder=z) if extant: ax.plot(xs[-1], base + ys[-1], "o", ms=4, color=col, zorder=z + 0.2) ax.text(xs[0] - 25, base + 0.6, name, ha="right", va="bottom", fontsize=9.5, color=col, zorder=60, fontweight="medium") k = int(np.argmax(ys)) ax.annotate(f"{ys[k]:.1f}", (xs[k], base + ys[k]), xytext=(0, 2), textcoords="offset points", ha="center", va="bottom", fontsize=7, color=col, zorder=61) # height key: calibrates curve height (vertical row offsets carry no value) kx = -1060 ax.plot([kx, kx], [0, 20], color=th["grey"], lw=1.0, zorder=50) for v in (0, 10, 20): ax.plot([kx - 14, kx], [v, v], color=th["grey"], lw=1.0, zorder=50) ax.text(kx - 30, v, str(v), ha="right", va="center", fontsize=7.5, color=th["grey"], zorder=50) ax.text(kx + 26, 10, "curve height,\nmillion km²\n(same scale\nin every row)", ha="left", va="center", fontsize=7.5, color=th["grey"], zorder=50, linespacing=1.5) ax.set_xlim(-1150, 2090) ax.set_ylim(-2, (n - 1) * spacing + 40) ax.set_xticks([-500, 1, 500, 1000, 1500, 2000]) ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(FuncFormatter(year_fmt)) ax.tick_params(axis="x", labelsize=10, length=0, pad=6) ax.set_yticks([]) for s in ax.spines.values(): s.set_visible(False) ax.set_title("The cascade of empires, 911 BCE – today", fontsize=17, loc="left", pad=18, fontweight="bold", color=th["fg"]) ax.text(0, 1.005, "Curve height = land ruled, million km² (see key, lower left) — " "one shared scale, so heights are comparable across all rows. A row's " "vertical position only orders empires by date of rise. Number marks each " "peak; dot = still on the map today. One colour per civilisation.", transform=ax.transAxes, fontsize=10, color=th["grey"], va="bottom") ax.text(0, -0.035, "Rows ordered by date of rise. Areas approximate, after " "R. Taagepera, “Size and Duration of Empires” (1978–1997).", transform=ax.transAxes, fontsize=8.5, color=th["grey"]) fig.savefig(f"{OUT}/empires_cascade{th['suffix']}.png", dpi=200, bbox_inches="tight", facecolor=th["bg"]) plt.close(fig) # ---------------------------------------------------------------- fig 2: modern power GDP_YEARS = [1500, 1600, 1700, 1820, 1870, 1913, 1950, 1973, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2026] GDP = { # % of world GDP, PPP "China": [24.9, 29.0, 22.3, 32.9, 17.1, 8.8, 4.5, 4.6, 7.8, 11.8, 16.5, 19.4], "India": [24.4, 22.4, 24.4, 16.0, 12.1, 7.5, 4.2, 3.1, 4.0, 5.2, 6.6, 8.4], "United States":[ 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, 1.8, 8.8, 18.9, 27.3, 22.1, 21.5, 21.4, 16.8, 14.7], "Britain": [ 1.1, 1.8, 2.9, 5.2, 9.0, 8.2, 6.5, 4.2, 3.4, 3.2, 2.6, 2.1], "Russia/USSR": [ 3.4, 3.5, 4.4, 5.4, 7.5, 8.5, 9.6, 9.4, 7.0, 3.3, 3.5, 3.4], "Japan": [ 3.1, 2.9, 4.1, 3.0, 2.3, 2.6, 3.0, 7.8, 8.6, 7.2, 5.0, 3.3], } GDP_STYLE = { "China": ("#a03522", 2.0), "India": ("#c08a3e", 1.6), "United States": ("#1f4e79", 2.0), "Britain": ("#666666", 1.4), "Russia/USSR": ("#7a6a8a", 1.4), "Japan": ("#999999", 1.2), } def fig_modern(th): fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(11.5, 6.8)) fig.patch.set_facecolor(th["bg"]) ax.set_facecolor(th["bg"]) for gy in (10, 20, 30): ax.axhline(gy, color=th["grid"], lw=0.8, zorder=0) ends = [] for name, vals in GDP.items(): c, lw = GDP_STYLE[name] c = lighten(c, th["mix"]) ax.plot(GDP_YEARS, vals, color=c, lw=lw, zorder=3, solid_capstyle="round") ends.append([name, vals[-1], c]) # spread right-edge labels to avoid collisions ends.sort(key=lambda e: e[1]) min_gap = 1.6 for j in range(1, len(ends)): if ends[j][1] - ends[j - 1][1] < min_gap: ends[j][1] = ends[j - 1][1] + min_gap for name, ly, c in ends: ax.text(2034, ly, f"{name} {GDP[name][-1]:.0f}%", va="center", fontsize=9.5, color=c, fontweight="medium") us_c = lighten(GDP_STYLE["United States"][0], th["mix"]) cn_c = lighten(GDP_STYLE["China"][0], th["mix"]) ax.plot([1950], [27.3], "o", ms=4, color=us_c, zorder=4) ax.annotate("U.S. peak: 27% of world output, 1950", (1950, 27.3), xytext=(1565, 31.2), fontsize=8.5, color=us_c, arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="-", color=us_c, lw=0.6)) ax.plot([2014], [16.6], "o", ms=4, color=cn_c, zorder=4) ax.annotate("China re-passes the U.S. (PPP), ~2014", (2014, 16.6), xytext=(1918, 12.4), fontsize=8.5, color=cn_c, arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="-", color=cn_c, lw=0.6)) ax.annotate("Industrial Revolution:\nthe great divergence", (1820, 0.5), xytext=(1700, -5.6), fontsize=8.5, color=th["grey"], ha="center", annotation_clip=False, arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="-", color=th["grey"], lw=0.6)) ax.set_xlim(1500, 2032) ax.set_ylim(0, 35) ax.set_xticks([1500, 1600, 1700, 1820, 1870, 1913, 1950, 2026]) ax.set_yticks([0, 10, 20, 30]) ax.set_yticklabels(["0", "10", "20", "30%"]) ax.tick_params(labelsize=9.5, length=0, pad=6) for s in ax.spines.values(): s.set_visible(False) ax.set_title("Modern empires are economic: share of world GDP, 1500 – 2026", fontsize=15, loc="left", pad=16, fontweight="bold", color=th["fg"]) ax.text(0, 1.01, "Percent of world output (purchasing-power parity). " "Maddison Project estimates; IMF for recent decades.", transform=ax.transAxes, fontsize=9.5, color=th["grey"], va="bottom") fig.savefig(f"{OUT}/modern_power{th['suffix']}.png", dpi=200, bbox_inches="tight", facecolor=th["bg"]) plt.close(fig) # ---------------------------------------------------------------- fig 3: life cycles LIFECYCLE = [ # name, highlight colour or None ("Achaemenid Persia", None), ("Rome", "#1a1a1a"), ("Han China", None), ("Arab Caliphates", None), ("Mongol Empire", "#a03522"), ("Ottoman Empire", None), ("Spanish Empire", None), ("Qing China", None), ("British Empire", "#1f4e79"), ("Russia – USSR – Russia", "#7d4f63"), ("United States", "#2e6b4f"), ] def fig_lifecycles(th): data = {name: pts for name, _x, _c, pts in EMPIRES} fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(11.5, 6.8)) fig.patch.set_facecolor(th["bg"]) ax.set_facecolor(th["bg"]) for gy in (50, 100): ax.axhline(gy, color=th["grid"], lw=0.8, zorder=0) for name, hi in LIFECYCLE: pts = data[name] xs = np.array([p[0] for p in pts], float) ys = np.array([p[1] for p in pts], float) t = xs - xs[0] pct = 100 * ys / ys.max() if hi: c = lighten("#e8e5de" if hi == "#1a1a1a" and th["suffix"] else hi, 0 if hi == "#1a1a1a" else th["mix"]) if hi == "#1a1a1a" and not th["suffix"]: c = hi else: c = "#4d4a44" if th["suffix"] else "#c8c5bf" lw = 1.8 if hi else 1.1 ax.plot(t, pct, color=c, lw=lw, zorder=3 if hi else 2, solid_capstyle="round") if hi: short = name.split(" (")[0].split(" –")[0] if name == "United States": ax.plot(t[-1], pct[-1], "o", ms=5, color=c, zorder=4) ax.annotate(f"{short} — year 250 (today), at peak", (t[-1], pct[-1]), xytext=(8, 6), textcoords="offset points", fontsize=9, color=c) elif name.startswith("Russia"): ax.plot(t[-1], pct[-1], "o", ms=5, color=c, zorder=4) ax.annotate("Russia — year 479 (today), 75% of peak", (t[-1], pct[-1]), xytext=(8, 0), textcoords="offset points", fontsize=9, color=c) else: ax.annotate(short, (t[-1], pct[-1]), xytext=(4, 3), textcoords="offset points", fontsize=9, color=c) ax.set_xlim(0, 830) ax.set_ylim(0, 108) ax.set_xticks([0, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, 800]) ax.set_yticks([0, 50, 100]) ax.set_yticklabels(["0", "50", "100%"]) ax.tick_params(labelsize=9.5, length=0, pad=6) for s in ax.spines.values(): s.set_visible(False) ax.set_xlabel("Years since founding", fontsize=10, color=th["fg"]) ax.set_title("Every empire on its own clock: extent as % of its peak", fontsize=15, loc="left", pad=16, fontweight="bold", color=th["fg"]) ax.text(0, 1.01, "Grey: Achaemenid, Han, Caliphates, Ottoman, Spanish, Qing. " "All curves share the same clock (years since founding) " "and the same vertical scale (% of own peak).", transform=ax.transAxes, fontsize=9.5, color=th["grey"], va="bottom") fig.savefig(f"{OUT}/empire_lifecycles{th['suffix']}.png", dpi=200, bbox_inches="tight", facecolor=th["bg"]) plt.close(fig) # ---------------------------------------------------------------- JS data export def export_js(): rows = [] for name, extant, col, pts in EMPIRES: rows.append(dict(name=name, extant=extant, color=col, colorDark=lighten(col, 0.38), pts=[[int(y), v] for y, v in pts])) with open(f"{OUT}/empires_data.js", "w") as f: f.write("// Generated by make_empire_plots.py — do not edit by hand.\n") f.write("const EMPIRES = " + json.dumps(rows, ensure_ascii=False) + ";\n") for theme in THEMES.values(): plt.rcParams.update({ "font.family": "Helvetica Neue", "text.color": theme["fg"], "xtick.color": theme["fg"], "ytick.color": theme["fg"], "svg.fonttype": "none", }) fig_cascade(theme) fig_modern(theme) fig_lifecycles(theme) export_js() print("done")